Granada CF 2–1 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mirandes

M. Uzuni 75', 44'

Raúl García 49'

9/17/2022

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Granada CF48%

×Draw26%

Mirandes26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Granada CF

1.50

Mirandes

1.04

Granada CF creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.57

creates per match

1.05

1.04

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Granada CF

1.57

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Granada CF

1.04

Mirandes

1.44

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.43scores more

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

74%

Granada CF or Mirandes

74%

Draw or Mirandes

52%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

24%

Mirandes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

78%

Granada CF 2+ goals

44%

Granada CF 3+ goals

19%

Mirandes 1+ goals

65%

Mirandes 2+ goals

28%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

65%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 7 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.57 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Granada CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Granada CF scores more

48%

level

26%

Mirandes scores more

26%

Granada CF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Uzuni

Granada CF · M

8.7

Match Events

13'

Víctor Díaz← Ignasi Miquel

31'

Víctor Meseguer

40'

Beñat Prados

44'

M. Uzuni↳ José Callejón

46'

Jorge Molina← Alberto Perea

46'

Roberto López← Óscar Pinchi

49'

Raúl García↳ Beñat Prados

63'

N. Petrović← Víctor Meseguer

63'

Bryan Zaragoza← Antonio Puertas

65'

Jofre Carreras← Juanlu Sánchez

65'

Javi Serrano← Beñat Prados

74'

Ricard Sánchez

75'

M. Uzuni↳ José Callejón

77'

José Callejón

78'

Nico Serrano← Marcos Paulo

85'

86'

88'

90+4'

90+4'

M. Arezo← José Callejón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaMirandes

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots3

10Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots3

2On Target1

9Off Target0

2Blocked2

5Inside Box2

8Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

362Total Passes222

259Accurate Passes123

72%Pass Accuracy55%

Discipline

12Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2