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Granada CF vs Levante — La Liga 2026

Granada CF
Granada CF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Levante
Levante
11/1/2020La LigaLa Liga · Round 8Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Granada CF45%
×Draw25%
Levante30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada CF
1.52
Levante
1.19

Granada CF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 99 away

creates per match

Granada CF
1.28
Levante
1.14

allows per match

Granada CF
1.23
Levante
1.77

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par
Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Levante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw
70%
Granada CF or Levante
75%
Draw or Levante
55%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+
22%
Levante wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals
78%
Granada CF 2+ goals
45%
Granada CF 3+ goals
20%
Levante 1+ goals
70%
Levante 2+ goals
33%
Levante 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)
60%
Levante (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 57 matches

Levante away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.77 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.28 + Levante defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Levante attack 1.14 + Granada CF defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Granada CF scores more
45%
level
25%
Levante scores more
30%

Granada CF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granada CF vs Levante

Granada CF and Levante drew 1-1 in La Liga on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.