Granad. Tenerife W vs Valencia W

Granad. Tenerife W

Preview

16:00

Valencia W

2/14/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 20

Big match

54%

Granad. Tenerife W

model favours

54%23%22%

Granad. Tenerife W have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W54%

×Draw23%

Valencia W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granad. Tenerife WExpected goals in this matchValencia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.04

Granad. Tenerife W

1.77

Valencia W

1.04

Granad. Tenerife W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 105 away

1.63

creates per match

0.94

1.15

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W

1.63

Valencia W

0.94

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W

1.15

Valencia W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par

Valencia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Valencia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw

78%

Granad. Tenerife W or Valencia W

77%

Draw or Valencia W

46%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+

30%

Valencia W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals

83%

Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals

53%

Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals

26%

Valencia W 1+ goals

65%

Valencia W 2+ goals

28%

Valencia W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)

71%

Valencia W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 121 matches

Valencia W away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.63 + Valencia W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.77

Valencia W attack 0.94 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more

54%

level

23%

Valencia W scores more

22%

Granad. Tenerife W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Granad. Tenerife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Valencia W win just 13% against the top half (vs 40% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Granad. Tenerife W

Direct / counter-attacking

Valencia W

Balanced

43%Possession45%

69%Pass accuracy71%

11.6ShotsBiggest gap9.9

—xG—

Granad. Tenerife WValencia W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7

Granad. Tenerife W

2

Draws

1

Valencia W

Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 70%

2–12–01–01–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

WDLDW

W

DDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff