Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Granad. Tenerife W vs Sporting Huelva W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Huelva W
Sporting Huelva W
3/31/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 26Estadio La Palmera (San Isidro (Tenerife))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W57%
×Draw23%
Sporting Huelva W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granad. Tenerife W
1.77
Sporting Huelva W
0.94

Granad. Tenerife W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 89 away

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.63
Sporting Huelva W
0.73

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.15
Sporting Huelva W
1.91

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par
Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Sporting Huelva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw
80%
Granad. Tenerife W or Sporting Huelva W
77%
Draw or Sporting Huelva W
43%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
32%
Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
83%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
53%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
26%
Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals
61%
Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals
24%
Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
74%
Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 121 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.63 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.73 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more
57%
level
23%
Sporting Huelva W scores more
20%

Granad. Tenerife W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Granad. Tenerife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Granad. Tenerife W 3–1 Sporting Huelva W

Granad. Tenerife W beat Sporting Huelva W 3-1 in Primera División Femenina on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Palmera (San Isidro (Tenerife)).