Granad. Tenerife W vs Real Madrid W

Granad. Tenerife W

Preview

16:00

Real Madrid W

1/31/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 18

Big match

47%

Real Madrid W

model favours

29%24%47%

Top-of-the-table clash — Granad. Tenerife W 4 vs Real Madrid W 2

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W29%

×Draw24%

Real Madrid W47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granad. Tenerife WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.67

Granad. Tenerife W

1.27

Real Madrid W

1.67

Real Madrid W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

1.62

creates per match

2.29

1.05

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W

1.62

Real Madrid W

2.29

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W

1.05

Real Madrid W

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw

53%

Granad. Tenerife W or Real Madrid W

76%

Draw or Real Madrid W

71%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+

12%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals

72%

Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals

36%

Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals

14%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

81%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

50%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)

38%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 92 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.62 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more

29%

level

24%

Real Madrid W scores more

47%

Real Madrid W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Granad. Tenerife W win just 25% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
Real Madrid W win just 56% against the top half (vs 91% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

WDLDW

W

WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff