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Granad. Tenerife W vs Real Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
10/1/2023Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 3Campo de Fútbol de Adeje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W28%
×Draw24%
Real Madrid W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granad. Tenerife W
1.27
Real Madrid W
1.72

Real Madrid W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 92 away

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.63
Real Madrid W
2.29

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.15
Real Madrid W
0.92

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par
Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Real Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw
52%
Granad. Tenerife W or Real Madrid W
76%
Draw or Real Madrid W
72%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
12%
Real Madrid W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
72%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
36%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
14%
Real Madrid W 1+ goals
82%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
51%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
37%
Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 121 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.63 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more
28%
level
24%
Real Madrid W scores more
48%

Real Madrid W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granad. Tenerife W vs Real Madrid W

Real Madrid W beat Granad. Tenerife W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Adeje in Adeje.