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Granad. Tenerife W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
Preview
16:00
Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
11/22/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 12
Big match
51%
Granad. Tenerife W
model favours
51%23%26%

Madrid CFF W win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W51%
×Draw23%
Madrid CFF W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granad. Tenerife W
1.88
Madrid CFF W
1.29

Granad. Tenerife W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 119 away

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.63
Madrid CFF W
1.44

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.15
Madrid CFF W
2.13

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par
Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Madrid CFF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw
74%
Granad. Tenerife W or Madrid CFF W
77%
Draw or Madrid CFF W
49%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
29%
Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
85%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
56%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
29%
Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
72%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
37%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
66%
Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 121 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.63 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.88

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more
51%
level
23%
Madrid CFF W scores more
26%

Granad. Tenerife W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Granad. Tenerife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Granad. Tenerife W play Direct / counter-attacking, Madrid CFF W Possession-dominant

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Granad. Tenerife W
Direct / counter-attacking
Madrid CFF W
Possession-dominant
43%PossessionBiggest gap55%
68%Pass accuracy77%
11.8Shots14.3
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Granad. Tenerife WMadrid CFF W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Granad. Tenerife W
1
Draws
4
Madrid CFF W
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 50%
2–02–02–01–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLDW
W
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Granad. Tenerife W vs Madrid CFF W — Match Preview

Granad. Tenerife W face Madrid CFF W on November 22, 2026 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.