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Granad. Tenerife W vs Granada — Primera División Femenina 2018

Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
Preview
15:00
Granada
Granada
5/23/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 30
Big match
49%
Granad. Tenerife W
model favours
49%24%27%

Granad. Tenerife W win just 25% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W49%
×Draw24%
Granada27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granad. Tenerife W
1.67
Granada
1.19

Granad. Tenerife W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 45 away

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.63
Granada
1.24

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.15
Granada
1.71

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par
Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Granada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw
73%
Granad. Tenerife W or Granada
76%
Draw or Granada
51%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
26%
Granada wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
81%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
50%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
23%
Granada 1+ goals
70%
Granada 2+ goals
33%
Granada 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
64%
Granada (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 121 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.63 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Granada attack 1.24 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more
49%
level
24%
Granada scores more
27%

Granad. Tenerife W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Granad. Tenerife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Granada win just 18% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Granad. Tenerife W
Balanced
Granada
Balanced
46%PossessionBiggest gap48%
70%Pass accuracy71%
11.8Shots12.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Granad. Tenerife WGranada

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Granad. Tenerife W
2
Draws
3
Granada
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 83%
1–12–21–21–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLDW
Granada
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Granad. Tenerife W host Granada

May 23, 2027: Granad. Tenerife W take on Granada in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.