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Granad. Tenerife W vs Barcelona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
Preview
15:00
Barcelona W
Barcelona W
4/11/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 26
Big match
69%
Barcelona W
model favours
14%18%69%

Barcelona W have won 10 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W14%
×Draw18%
Barcelona W69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granad. Tenerife W
0.98
Barcelona W
2.42

Barcelona W creates 147% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 119 away

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.63
Barcelona W
3.70

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.15
Barcelona W
0.34

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par
Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Barcelona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw
31%
Granad. Tenerife W or Barcelona W
82%
Draw or Barcelona W
86%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
5%
Barcelona W wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
62%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
26%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
8%
Barcelona W 1+ goals
91%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
69%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
17%
Barcelona W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 121 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 3.70, concedes 0.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.63 + Barcelona W defence 0.34 → ÷2 → 0.98

Barcelona W attack 3.70 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more
14%
level
18%
Barcelona W scores more
69%

Barcelona W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Granad. Tenerife W 4 vs Barcelona W 1
  • Granad. Tenerife W win just 25% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Granad. Tenerife W
Balanced
Barcelona W
Possession-dominant
46%Possession73%
70%Pass accuracy89%
11.8ShotsBiggest gap26.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Granad. Tenerife WBarcelona W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Granad. Tenerife W
0
Draws
10
Barcelona W
Avg goals: 4.3BTTS: 20%
1–30–20–21–50–7

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLDW
W
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Granad. Tenerife W face Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Granad. Tenerife W hosting Barcelona W. Match starts April 11, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.