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Granad. Tenerife W vs Atletico Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2020

Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
Preview
16:00
Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
3/21/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 23
Big match
39%
Atletico Madrid W
model favours
35%26%39%

Granad. Tenerife W win just 25% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W35%
×Draw26%
Atletico Madrid W39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granad. Tenerife W
1.33
Atletico Madrid W
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 93 away

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.62
Atletico Madrid W
1.77

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.05
Atletico Madrid W
1.04

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par
Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw
61%
Granad. Tenerife W or Atletico Madrid W
74%
Draw or Atletico Madrid W
65%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
74%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
38%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
15%
Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
76%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
41%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
48%
Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 92 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.04 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.62 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.77 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more
35%
level
26%
Atletico Madrid W scores more
39%

Atletico Madrid W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atletico Madrid W win just 37% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLDW
W
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Granad. Tenerife W face Atletico Madrid W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Granad. Tenerife W hosting Atletico Madrid W. Match starts March 21, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.