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Gradina vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gradina
Gradina
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
Z. Mikic 59'
E. Mehanovic 54' (pen)
S. Buric 36'
T. Sazic 40'
3/27/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 19Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gradina51%
×Draw24%
Zvijezda Gradačac25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gradina
1.67
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.09

Gradina creates 53% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 82 away

creates per match

Gradina
1.68
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Gradina
1.17
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gradina or draw
75%
Gradina or Zvijezda Gradačac
76%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
49%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+
27%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals
81%
Gradina 2+ goals
50%
Gradina 3+ goals
23%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
66%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
30%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)
67%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gradina scores more
51%
level
24%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
25%

Gradina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
S. Buric
40'
T. Sazic
54'
E. MehanovicPenalty
59'
Z. Mikic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gradina vs Zvijezda Gradačac

Gradina beat Zvijezda Gradačac 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on March 27, 2022.

Goals: S. Buric (36'), T. Sazic (40'), E. Mehanovic (54' pen), Z. Mikic (59').

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Srebrenik.