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Göteborg W vs Jitex W — Elitettan 2021

Göteborg W
Göteborg W
Preview
11:00
Jitex W
Jitex W
9/12/2026ElitettanElitettan · Round 18Gamla Ullevi
51%
Göteborg W
model favours
51%21%28%

Jitex W win just 24% against the top half (vs 60% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Göteborg W51%
×Draw21%
Jitex W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göteborg W
2.06
Jitex W
1.48

Göteborg W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 69 away

creates per match

Göteborg W
2.20
Jitex W
1.55

allows per match

Göteborg W
1.40
Jitex W
1.91

finishing

Göteborg W+0.00on par
Jitex W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göteborg W ↓

Jitex W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Göteborg W or draw
72%
Göteborg W or Jitex W
79%
Draw or Jitex W
49%

Winning margin

Göteborg W wins by 2+
30%
Jitex W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Göteborg W 1+ goals
87%
Göteborg W 2+ goals
61%
Göteborg W 3+ goals
34%
Jitex W 1+ goals
77%
Jitex W 2+ goals
43%
Jitex W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Göteborg W (draw refunded)
65%
Jitex W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göteborg W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Jitex W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göteborg W attack 2.20 + Jitex W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.06

Jitex W attack 1.55 + Göteborg W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Göteborg W scores more
51%
level
21%
Jitex W scores more
28%

Göteborg W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Göteborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WDWWW
W
LLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Göteborg W host Jitex W

September 12, 2026: Göteborg W take on Jitex W in Elitettan. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Göteborg W host Jitex W at Gamla Ullevi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.