GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 5–0 Neretvanac Opuzen

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

FT

5 – 0

Neretvanac Opuzen

11/11/2023

Third NL - Jug · South - 13Sportski centar Jure Bakotić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica55%

×Draw23%

Neretvanac Opuzen22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK Kaštel GomilicaExpected goals in this matchNeretvanac Opuzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.06

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.83

Neretvanac Opuzen

1.06

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica creates 73% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 102 away

1.62

creates per match

1.09

1.02

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.62

Neretvanac Opuzen

1.09

allows per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.02

Neretvanac Opuzen

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par

Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica ↓

Neretvanac Opuzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or draw

78%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or Neretvanac Opuzen

77%

Draw or Neretvanac Opuzen

45%

Winning margin

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+

31%

Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals

84%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals

54%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals

28%

Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals

65%

Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals

29%

Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)

72%

Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Neretvanac Opuzen away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.04 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.62 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.09 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more

55%

level

23%

Neretvanac Opuzen scores more

22%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff