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GOŠK Dubrovnik vs RNK Split — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
CANC
00:00
RNK Split
RNK Split
4/18/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 24Gradski stadion Lapad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik46%
×Draw26%
RNK Split28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.48
RNK Split
1.10

GOŠK Dubrovnik creates 35% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

creates per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.33
RNK Split
1.23

allows per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.97
RNK Split
1.63

finishing

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par
RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Dubrovnik ↓

RNK Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

GOŠK Dubrovnik or draw
72%
GOŠK Dubrovnik or RNK Split
74%
Draw or RNK Split
54%

Winning margin

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
23%
RNK Split wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
77%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
43%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
19%
RNK Split 1+ goals
67%
RNK Split 2+ goals
30%
RNK Split 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
62%
RNK Split (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Dubrovnik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.97 · 102 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 1.33 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

RNK Split attack 1.23 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
46%
level
26%
RNK Split scores more
28%

GOŠK Dubrovnik at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GOŠK Dubrovnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: GOŠK Dubrovnik host RNK Split

April 18, 2020: GOŠK Dubrovnik take on RNK Split in Third NL - Jug. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

GOŠK Dubrovnik host RNK Split at Gradski stadion Lapad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.