GOŠK Dubrovnik 2–0 Kamen Ivanbegovina

GOŠK Dubrovnik

FT

2 – 0

Kamen Ivanbegovina

11/19/2023

Third NL - Jug · South - 14Gradski stadion Lapad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik63%

×Draw21%

Kamen Ivanbegovina16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK DubrovnikExpected goals in this matchKamen Ivanbegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.89

GOŠK Dubrovnik

2.02

Kamen Ivanbegovina

0.89

GOŠK Dubrovnik creates 127% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

1.33

creates per match

0.80

0.97

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik

1.33

Kamen Ivanbegovina

0.80

allows per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.97

Kamen Ivanbegovina

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Dubrovnik ↓

Kamen Ivanbegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

GOŠK Dubrovnik or draw

84%

GOŠK Dubrovnik or Kamen Ivanbegovina

79%

Draw or Kamen Ivanbegovina

37%

Winning margin

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+

39%

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals

87%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals

60%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals

33%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals

59%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals

22%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)

80%

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Dubrovnik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.97 · 102 matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 1.33 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.02

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 0.80 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more

63%

level

21%

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more

16%

GOŠK Dubrovnik at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "GOŠK Dubrovnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff