Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Pogon Szczecin: Result & Stats

Gornik Zabrze

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pogon Szczecin

12/1/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 17Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Gornik Zabrze45%

×Draw26%

Pogon Szczecin30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gornik ZabrzeExpected goals in this matchPogon Szczecin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

Gornik Zabrze

1.50

Pogon Szczecin

1.17

Gornik Zabrze creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

1.56

creates per match

1.23

1.11

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Gornik Zabrze

1.56

Pogon Szczecin

1.23

allows per match

Gornik Zabrze

1.11

Pogon Szczecin

1.45

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Gornik Zabrze+0.01on par

Pogon Szczecin-0.36scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornik Zabrze ↓

Pogon Szczecin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gornik Zabrze or draw

70%

Gornik Zabrze or Pogon Szczecin

74%

Draw or Pogon Szczecin

55%

Winning margin

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+

22%

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals

78%

Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals

44%

Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals

19%

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

69%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

33%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)

60%

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 21 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.56 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.23 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gornik Zabrze scores more

45%

level

26%

Pogon Szczecin scores more

30%

Gornik Zabrze at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff