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Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa 2026

Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
A. Sobczyk 71'
Jesús Jiménez 63' (pen), 29'
J. Puljić 15'
5/7/2021EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 29Arena Zabrze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Gornik Zabrze44%
×Draw25%
Jagiellonia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornik Zabrze
1.59
Jagiellonia
1.30

Gornik Zabrze creates 22% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 33 away

creates per match

Gornik Zabrze
1.46
Jagiellonia
1.45

allows per match

Gornik Zabrze
1.16
Jagiellonia
1.73

finishing

Gornik Zabrze-0.01on par
Jagiellonia+0.07on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornik Zabrze ↓

Jagiellonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gornik Zabrze or draw
69%
Gornik Zabrze or Jagiellonia
75%
Draw or Jagiellonia
56%

Winning margin

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+
22%
Jagiellonia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals
80%
Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals
47%
Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals
21%
Jagiellonia 1+ goals
73%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
37%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)
59%
Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.16 · 29 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.46 + Jagiellonia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Jagiellonia attack 1.45 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gornik Zabrze scores more
44%
level
25%
Jagiellonia scores more
31%

Gornik Zabrze at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Przemyslaw Wiśniewski
15'
J. Puljić
29'
Jesús Jiménez↳ A. Manneh
33'
Martin Chudy
57'
M. Pospíšil← T. Romanczuk
63'
Jesús JiménezPenalty
65'
A. Borysiuk← B. Kwiecień
71'
A. Sobczyk↳ Jesús Jiménez
73'
R. Procházka← G. Masouras
73'
R. Boakye← A. Sobczyk
78'
K. Wrzesiński← B. Țîru
78'
M. Twarowski← B. Bida
78'
K. Twardek← B. Wdowik
85'
Myroslav Mazur

Possession

51%Gornik

Shots

13Gornik

Statistics

GornikJagiellonia
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots7
8Corners3
5Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots7
5On Target3
8Off Target4
Passing
51%Possession49%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Ekstraklasa: Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Jagiellonia

Gornik Zabrze beat Jagiellonia 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on May 7, 2021.

Goals: J. Puljić (15'), Jesús Jiménez (29', 63' pen), A. Sobczyk (71').

Gornik Zabrze controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Arena Zabrze in Zabrze.