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Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow — Ekstraklasa 2018

Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
11/6/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 14Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Gornik Zabrze51%
×Draw24%
Cracovia Krakow25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornik Zabrze
1.67
Cracovia Krakow
1.10

Gornik Zabrze creates 52% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

creates per match

Gornik Zabrze
1.56
Cracovia Krakow
1.08

allows per match

Gornik Zabrze
1.11
Cracovia Krakow
1.78

finishing

Gornik Zabrze+0.01on par
Cracovia Krakow-0.08on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornik Zabrze ↓

Cracovia Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gornik Zabrze or draw
75%
Gornik Zabrze or Cracovia Krakow
76%
Draw or Cracovia Krakow
49%

Winning margin

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+
27%
Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals
81%
Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals
50%
Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals
23%
Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
67%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
30%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)
67%
Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 21 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.56 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.08 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gornik Zabrze scores more
51%
level
24%
Cracovia Krakow scores more
25%

Gornik Zabrze at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Cracovia Krakow

Gornik Zabrze beat Cracovia Krakow 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Zabrze.