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Górnik Polkowice vs Warta Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
Preview
17:00
Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
3/6/2027III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 21
Big match
46%
Górnik Polkowice
model favours
46%24%30%

Górnik Polkowice score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice46%
×Draw24%
Warta Gorzów30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.65
Warta Gorzów
1.27

Górnik Polkowice creates 30% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 102 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
Warta Gorzów
1.28

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
Warta Gorzów
1.58

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Warta Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
70%
Górnik Polkowice or Warta Gorzów
76%
Draw or Warta Gorzów
54%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
24%
Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
81%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
49%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
23%
Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
72%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
36%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
61%
Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.58 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.65

Warta Gorzów attack 1.28 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
46%
level
24%
Warta Gorzów scores more
30%

Górnik Polkowice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 83% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches
  • 67% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Warta Gorzów win just 21% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Polkowice
WWLLL
Gorzów
LDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Górnik Polkowice host Warta Gorzów

March 6, 2027: Górnik Polkowice take on Warta Gorzów in III Liga - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.