Górnik Polkowice vs ROW Rybnik

Górnik Polkowice

Preview

17:00

ROW Rybnik

3/20/2027

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 23

52%

Górnik Polkowice

model favours

52%22%27%

Górnik Polkowice score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

65%

over 2.5 goals

65%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Górnik Polkowice52%

×Draw22%

ROW Rybnik27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchROW Rybnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.38

Górnik Polkowice

2.00

ROW Rybnik

1.38

Górnik Polkowice creates 45% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 18 away

1.72

creates per match

1.50

1.26

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.72

ROW Rybnik

1.50

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.26

ROW Rybnik

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

ROW Rybnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

ROW Rybnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

73%

Górnik Polkowice or ROW Rybnik

78%

Draw or ROW Rybnik

48%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

30%

ROW Rybnik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

86%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

59%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

32%

ROW Rybnik 1+ goals

75%

ROW Rybnik 2+ goals

40%

ROW Rybnik 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

66%

ROW Rybnik (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

ROW Rybnik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + ROW Rybnik defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.00

ROW Rybnik attack 1.50 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

52%

level

22%

ROW Rybnik scores more

27%

Górnik Polkowice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 83% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches
67% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Górnik Polkowice and ROW Rybnik have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Polkowice

WWLLL

Rybnik

LWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff