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Gori vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gori
Gori
Preview
12:00
Samtredia
Samtredia
10/24/2026Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 30
42%
Samtredia
model favours
30%28%42%

Gori score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Gori30%
×Draw28%
Samtredia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gori
1.06
Samtredia
1.30

Samtredia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 57 away

creates per match

Gori
0.78
Samtredia
1.16

allows per match

Gori
1.44
Samtredia
1.33

finishing

Gori+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gori ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gori or draw
58%
Gori or Samtredia
72%
Draw or Samtredia
70%

Winning margin

Gori wins by 2+
12%
Samtredia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gori 1+ goals
65%
Gori 2+ goals
29%
Gori 3+ goals
9%
Samtredia 1+ goals
73%
Samtredia 2+ goals
37%
Samtredia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gori (draw refunded)
42%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gori at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.33 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gori attack 0.78 + Samtredia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Samtredia attack 1.16 + Gori defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gori scores more
30%
level
28%
Samtredia scores more
42%

Samtredia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Samtredia score first in only 21% of matches
  • 74% of Samtredia’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 67% of Gori’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Gori’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gori
WWDLL
Samtredia
LLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gori host Samtredia

October 24, 2026: Gori take on Samtredia in Erovnuli Liga 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.