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Gorée vs Ouakam — Ligue 1 2019

Gorée
Gorée
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ouakam
Ouakam
12/31/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Iba-Mar-Diop

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gorée35%
×Draw40%
Ouakam25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gorée
0.73
Ouakam
0.56

Gorée creates 30% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 43 away

creates per match

Gorée
0.84
Ouakam
0.49

allows per match

Gorée
0.64
Ouakam
0.63

finishing

Gorée+0.00on par
Ouakam+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Under
  • Under86
  • Over14

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorée ↓

Ouakam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–028%
0–115%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (28%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
72%28%1.5
37%63%2.5
14%86%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Gorée or draw
75%
Gorée or Ouakam
60%
Draw or Ouakam
65%

Winning margin

Gorée wins by 2+
11%
Ouakam wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gorée 1+ goals
52%
Gorée 2+ goals
17%
Gorée 3+ goals
4%
Ouakam 1+ goals
43%
Ouakam 2+ goals
11%
Ouakam 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Gorée (draw refunded)
59%
Ouakam (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorée at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Ouakam away — creates 0.49, concedes 0.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorée attack 0.84 + Ouakam defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.73

Ouakam attack 0.49 + Gorée defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Gorée scores more
35%
level
40%
Ouakam scores more
25%

Gorée at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Gorée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Gorée 1–0 Ouakam

Gorée beat Ouakam 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Iba-Mar-Diop in Dakar.