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Gorée vs Jaraaf — Ligue 1 2019

Gorée
Gorée
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jaraaf
Jaraaf
11/19/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Iba-Mar-Diop

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Gorée31%
×Draw36%
Jaraaf33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gorée
0.76
Jaraaf
0.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

creates per match

Gorée
0.84
Jaraaf
0.94

allows per match

Gorée
0.64
Jaraaf
0.67

finishing

Gorée+0.00on par
Jaraaf+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorée ↓

Jaraaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Gorée or draw
67%
Gorée or Jaraaf
64%
Draw or Jaraaf
69%

Winning margin

Gorée wins by 2+
10%
Jaraaf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gorée 1+ goals
53%
Gorée 2+ goals
18%
Gorée 3+ goals
4%
Jaraaf 1+ goals
55%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
19%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gorée (draw refunded)
49%
Jaraaf (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorée at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Jaraaf away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.67 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorée attack 0.84 + Jaraaf defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Jaraaf attack 0.94 + Gorée defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Gorée scores more
31%
level
36%
Jaraaf scores more
33%

Jaraaf at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Gorée 0–1 Jaraaf

Jaraaf beat Gorée 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Iba-Mar-Diop in Dakar.