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Goražde vs Orašje — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Goražde
Goražde
FT
5 – 1
Orašje
Orašje
9/21/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 7Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Goražde60%
×Draw22%
Orašje18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goražde
1.92
Orašje
0.95

Goražde creates 102% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 46 away

creates per match

Goražde
1.67
Orašje
0.96

allows per match

Goražde
0.94
Orašje
2.17

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par
Orašje+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

Orašje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Goražde or draw
82%
Goražde or Orašje
78%
Draw or Orašje
40%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+
35%
Orašje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals
85%
Goražde 2+ goals
57%
Goražde 3+ goals
30%
Orašje 1+ goals
61%
Orašje 2+ goals
25%
Orašje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)
77%
Orašje (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Orašje away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + Orašje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Orašje attack 0.96 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Goražde scores more
60%
level
22%
Orašje scores more
18%

Goražde at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goražde vs Orašje

Goražde beat Orašje 5-1 in 1st League - FBiH on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Midhat Drljević in Goražde.