GOR Mahia 1–1 Western Stima: Result & Stats

GOR Mahia

FT

1 – 1

Western Stima

2/20/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 11Moi International Sports Centre (Nairobi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

GOR Mahia51%

×Draw27%

Western Stima22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOR MahiaExpected goals in this matchWestern Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.86

GOR Mahia

1.47

Western Stima

0.86

GOR Mahia creates 71% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 45 away

1.58

creates per match

1.02

0.70

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

GOR Mahia

1.58

Western Stima

1.02

allows per match

GOR Mahia

0.70

Western Stima

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Western Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw

78%

GOR Mahia or Western Stima

73%

Draw or Western Stima

49%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

26%

Western Stima wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

77%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

43%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

18%

Western Stima 1+ goals

58%

Western Stima 2+ goals

21%

Western Stima 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

70%

Western Stima (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Western Stima defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Western Stima attack 1.02 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

GOR Mahia scores more

51%

level

27%

Western Stima scores more

22%

GOR Mahia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff