Golden Arrows 3–2 Marumo Gallants: Result & Stats

Golden Arrows

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Marumo Gallants

K. Mutizwa 71'

P. Mmodi 60'

N. Dlamini 53'

R. Chivaviro 77'

C. Ngema 39'

1/25/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 14Princess Magogo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Golden Arrows46%

×Draw29%

Marumo Gallants25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Golden ArrowsExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.85

Golden Arrows

1.27

Marumo Gallants

0.85

Golden Arrows creates 49% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 76 away

1.08

creates per match

0.72

0.99

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Golden Arrows

1.08

Marumo Gallants

0.72

allows per match

Golden Arrows

0.99

Marumo Gallants

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Golden Arrows+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golden Arrows ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Golden Arrows or draw

75%

Golden Arrows or Marumo Gallants

71%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

54%

Winning margin

Golden Arrows wins by 2+

21%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Golden Arrows 1+ goals

72%

Golden Arrows 2+ goals

36%

Golden Arrows 3+ goals

14%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

57%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

21%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Golden Arrows (draw refunded)

65%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golden Arrows at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.99 · 119 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golden Arrows attack 1.08 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Golden Arrows defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Golden Arrows scores more

46%

level

29%

Marumo Gallants scores more

25%

Golden Arrows at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Golden Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Pule Mmodi

25'

Chivaviro

26'

N. Nxadi← T. Mantshiyane

39'

C. Ngema

45+3'

Ntsako Makhubela

45'

Mpho Mvelase

53'

N. Dlamini↳ K. Mutizwa

57'

60'

63'

67'

71'

K. Mutizwa↳ N. Sibiya

74'

L. Mohomi← O. Touré

74'

J. Moseamedi← M. Mphambaniso

74'

L. Nku← J. Malongoane

77'

82'

85'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GoldenMarumo

Overview

48%Possession52%

9Total Shots12

2Corners5

21Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots12

7On Target5

2Off Target6

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls19

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1