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Gol Gohar vs Tractor Sazi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
12/7/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 12Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Gol Gohar37%
×Draw29%
Tractor Sazi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
1.12
Tractor Sazi
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 116 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
1.28
Tractor Sazi
1.16

allows per match

Gol Gohar
0.97
Tractor Sazi
0.96

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
66%
Gol Gohar or Tractor Sazi
71%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
63%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
15%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
67%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
31%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
10%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
65%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
29%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
52%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.12

Tractor Sazi attack 1.16 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
37%
level
29%
Tractor Sazi scores more
34%

Gol Gohar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Gol Gohar 0–1 Tractor Sazi

Tractor Sazi beat Gol Gohar 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Gol Gohar Sport Complex in Sirjan.