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Gol Gohar vs Esteghlal FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
12/24/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 14Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Gol Gohar32%
×Draw29%
Esteghlal FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
1.02
Esteghlal FC
1.14

Esteghlal FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 116 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
1.28
Esteghlal FC
1.30

allows per match

Gol Gohar
0.97
Esteghlal FC
0.75

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
62%
Gol Gohar or Esteghlal FC
71%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
68%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
12%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
64%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
27%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
8%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
68%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
32%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
46%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Esteghlal FC attack 1.30 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
32%
level
29%
Esteghlal FC scores more
38%

Esteghlal FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gol Gohar vs Esteghlal FC

Gol Gohar and Esteghlal FC drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Gol Gohar Sport Complex in Sirjan.