Goczałkowice Zdrój 2–2 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Goczałkowice Zdrój

FT

2 – 2

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

P. Cwielong 69' (pen), 23'

R. Kulinski 57'

S. Siwek 19'

5/15/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój48%

×Draw24%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Goczałkowice ZdrójExpected goals in this matchGwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.26

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.72

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.26

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 37% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 69 away

1.59

creates per match

1.39

1.13

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.59

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.39

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.13

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw

72%

Goczałkowice Zdrój or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

76%

Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

52%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+

26%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals

82%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals

51%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals

25%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

72%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

36%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)

63%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.72

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more

48%

level

24%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

28%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

S. Siwek

23'

P. Cwielong

57'

R. Kulinski

69'

P. CwielongPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff