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Go Ahead Eagles U21 vs De Graafschap U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Go Ahead Eagles U21
Go Ahead Eagles U21
FT
4 – 0
De Graafschap U21
De Graafschap U21
3/16/2024U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 4Sportpark Zuiderlaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Go Ahead Eagles U2138%
×Draw24%
De Graafschap U2137%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Go Ahead Eagles U21
1.50
De Graafschap U21
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 50 away

creates per match

Go Ahead Eagles U21
1.31
De Graafschap U21
1.40

allows per match

Go Ahead Eagles U21
1.57
De Graafschap U21
1.68

finishing

Go Ahead Eagles U21+0.00on par
De Graafschap U21+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Go Ahead Eagles U21 ↓

De Graafschap U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Go Ahead Eagles U21 or draw
63%
Go Ahead Eagles U21 or De Graafschap U21
76%
Draw or De Graafschap U21
62%

Winning margin

Go Ahead Eagles U21 wins by 2+
18%
De Graafschap U21 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Go Ahead Eagles U21 1+ goals
78%
Go Ahead Eagles U21 2+ goals
44%
Go Ahead Eagles U21 3+ goals
19%
De Graafschap U21 1+ goals
77%
De Graafschap U21 2+ goals
43%
De Graafschap U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Go Ahead Eagles U21 (draw refunded)
51%
De Graafschap U21 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Go Ahead Eagles U21 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

De Graafschap U21 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.68 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Go Ahead Eagles U21 attack 1.31 + De Graafschap U21 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

De Graafschap U21 attack 1.40 + Go Ahead Eagles U21 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Go Ahead Eagles U21 scores more
38%
level
24%
De Graafschap U21 scores more
37%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Go Ahead Eagles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Go Ahead Eagles U21 4 – 0 De Graafschap U21

Go Ahead Eagles U21 beat De Graafschap U21 4-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuiderlaan in Twello.