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Gnistan vs VPS — Ykkönen 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
VPS
VPS
8/30/2020YkkönenYkkönen · Round 7Mustapekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Gnistan41%
×Draw24%
VPS35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
1.57
VPS
1.43

Gnistan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 24 away

creates per match

Gnistan
1.69
VPS
1.63

allows per match

Gnistan
1.23
VPS
1.46

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

VPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
65%
Gnistan or VPS
76%
Draw or VPS
59%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
20%
VPS wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
79%
Gnistan 2+ goals
46%
Gnistan 3+ goals
21%
VPS 1+ goals
76%
VPS 2+ goals
42%
VPS 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
54%
VPS (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

VPS away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 1.69 + VPS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.57

VPS attack 1.63 + Gnistan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gnistan scores more
41%
level
24%
VPS scores more
35%

Gnistan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: Gnistan 1–2 VPS

VPS beat Gnistan 2-1 in Ykkönen on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena in Helsinki.