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Gnistan vs MyPa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
MyPa
MyPa
4/28/2018Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 1Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gnistan60%
×Draw19%
MyPa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
2.44
MyPa
1.38

Gnistan creates 77% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 45 away

creates per match

Gnistan
2.36
MyPa
1.58

allows per match

Gnistan
1.18
MyPa
2.53

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
79%
Gnistan or MyPa
81%
Draw or MyPa
40%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
39%
MyPa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
91%
Gnistan 2+ goals
70%
Gnistan 3+ goals
43%
MyPa 1+ goals
75%
MyPa 2+ goals
40%
MyPa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
74%
MyPa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

MyPa away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 2.36 + MyPa defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.44

MyPa attack 1.58 + Gnistan defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gnistan scores more
60%
level
19%
MyPa scores more
21%

Gnistan at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gnistan 3 – 0 MyPa

Gnistan beat MyPa 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on April 28, 2018.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena (Helsinki).