Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gnistan vs Ilves — Veikkausliiga 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
Preview
15:00
Ilves
Ilves
8/17/2026VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 20Mustapekka Areena
Big match
40%
Ilves
model favours
36%24%40%

Gnistan score first in only 35% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gnistan36%
×Draw24%
Ilves40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
1.45
Ilves
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 118 away

creates per match

Gnistan
1.49
Ilves
1.50

allows per match

Gnistan
1.59
Ilves
1.41

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

Ilves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
60%
Gnistan or Ilves
76%
Draw or Ilves
64%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
17%
Ilves wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
77%
Gnistan 2+ goals
42%
Gnistan 3+ goals
18%
Ilves 1+ goals
79%
Ilves 2+ goals
45%
Ilves 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
47%
Ilves (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

Ilves away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 1.49 + Ilves defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ilves attack 1.50 + Gnistan defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gnistan scores more
36%
level
24%
Ilves scores more
40%

Ilves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 69% of Ilves’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 72% of Ilves’s matches
  • Both teams score in 70% of Gnistan’s matches
  • Ilves win just 21% of their away games
  • Their last 9 meetings averaged 3.7 goals
  • Ilves win just 38% against the top half (vs 70% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gnistan
WLDDW
Ilves
WDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gnistan host Ilves

August 17, 2026: Gnistan take on Ilves in Veikkausliiga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gnistan host Ilves at Mustapekka Areena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.