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Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki — Veikkausliiga 2018

Gnistan
Gnistan
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
6/12/2024VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 11Mustapekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gnistan30%
×Draw25%
HJK Helsinki46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnistan
1.24
HJK Helsinki
1.60

HJK Helsinki creates 29% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 118 away

creates per match

Gnistan
1.49
HJK Helsinki
1.60

allows per match

Gnistan
1.59
HJK Helsinki
0.99

finishing

Gnistan+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnistan ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gnistan or draw
54%
Gnistan or HJK Helsinki
75%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
70%

Winning margin

Gnistan wins by 2+
12%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gnistan 1+ goals
71%
Gnistan 2+ goals
35%
Gnistan 3+ goals
13%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
80%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
47%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gnistan (draw refunded)
39%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnistan at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.99 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnistan attack 1.49 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.24

HJK Helsinki attack 1.60 + Gnistan defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gnistan scores more
30%
level
25%
HJK Helsinki scores more
46%

HJK Helsinki at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki

HJK Helsinki beat Gnistan 4-0 in Veikkausliiga on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena in Helsinki.