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Gneist vs Varegg — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Gneist
Gneist
Preview
12:00
Varegg
Varegg
9/19/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 20
46%
Gneist
model favours
46%19%35%
2–2
likely score
86%
over 2.5 goals
83%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gneist46%
×Draw19%
Varegg35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
2.63
Varegg
2.29

Gneist creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gneist
2.67
Varegg
1.40

allows per match

Gneist
3.17
Varegg
2.60

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Varegg+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Varegg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
65%
Gneist or Varegg
81%
Draw or Varegg
54%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
28%
Varegg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
93%
Gneist 2+ goals
73%
Gneist 3+ goals
48%
Varegg 1+ goals
90%
Varegg 2+ goals
66%
Varegg 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
57%
Varegg (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 2.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Varegg away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 2.67 + Varegg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.63

Varegg attack 1.40 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gneist scores more
46%
level
19%
Varegg scores more
35%

Gneist at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gneist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Gneist
LLWLD
Varegg
DDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gneist face Varegg (3. Division - Girone 3)

3. Division - Girone 3 returns with Gneist hosting Varegg. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.