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Gneist vs Vard — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Gneist
Gneist
Preview
12:00
Vard
Vard
8/1/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 14
42%
Gneist
model favours
42%20%38%
2–2
likely score
79%
over 2.5 goals
77%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gneist42%
×Draw20%
Vard38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
2.17
Vard
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gneist
2.67
Vard
1.00

allows per match

Gneist
3.17
Vard
1.67

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Vard+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Vard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
62%
Gneist or Vard
80%
Draw or Vard
58%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
23%
Vard wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
89%
Gneist 2+ goals
64%
Gneist 3+ goals
36%
Vard 1+ goals
87%
Vard 2+ goals
61%
Vard 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
52%
Vard (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 2.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Vard away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 2.67 + Vard defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Vard attack 1.00 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gneist scores more
42%
level
20%
Vard scores more
38%

Gneist at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gneist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Gneist
LLWLD
Vard
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gneist vs Vard — Match Preview

Gneist face Vard on August 1, 2026 in this 3. Division - Girone 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.