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Gneist vs Brann II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Gneist
Gneist
Preview
15:00
Brann II
Brann II
7/27/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 13
42%
Gneist
model favours
42%19%39%

Gneist and Brann II have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–2
likely score
85%
over 2.5 goals
82%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gneist42%
×Draw19%
Brann II39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gneist
2.42
Brann II
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gneist
2.67
Brann II
1.50

allows per match

Gneist
3.17
Brann II
2.17

finishing

Gneist+0.00on par
Brann II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gneist ↓

Brann II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Gneist or draw
61%
Gneist or Brann II
81%
Draw or Brann II
58%

Winning margin

Gneist wins by 2+
24%
Brann II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gneist 1+ goals
91%
Gneist 2+ goals
69%
Gneist 3+ goals
43%
Brann II 1+ goals
90%
Brann II 2+ goals
67%
Brann II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Gneist (draw refunded)
52%
Brann II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gneist at home — creates 2.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Brann II away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gneist attack 2.67 + Brann II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.42

Brann II attack 1.50 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gneist scores more
42%
level
19%
Brann II scores more
39%

Gneist at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gneist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Gneist
LLWLD
II
WLDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gneist host Brann II

July 27, 2026: Gneist take on Brann II in 3. Division - Girone 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.