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Gnas vs Mettersdorf — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Gnas
Gnas
CANC
18:00
Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
3/19/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 14Sportplatz Gnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Gnas34%
×Draw23%
Mettersdorf43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gnas
1.59
Mettersdorf
1.80

Mettersdorf creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 44 away

creates per match

Gnas
1.89
Mettersdorf
1.86

allows per match

Gnas
1.74
Mettersdorf
1.30

finishing

Gnas+0.00on par
Mettersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gnas ↓

Mettersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gnas or draw
57%
Gnas or Mettersdorf
77%
Draw or Mettersdorf
66%

Winning margin

Gnas wins by 2+
17%
Mettersdorf wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gnas 1+ goals
80%
Gnas 2+ goals
47%
Gnas 3+ goals
21%
Mettersdorf 1+ goals
83%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
54%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Gnas (draw refunded)
44%
Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gnas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

Mettersdorf away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gnas attack 1.89 + Mettersdorf defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.59

Mettersdorf attack 1.86 + Gnas defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gnas scores more
34%
level
23%
Mettersdorf scores more
43%

Mettersdorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gnas host Mettersdorf

March 19, 2021: Gnas take on Mettersdorf in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gnas host Mettersdorf at Sportplatz Gnas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.