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Gmünd vs St. Jakob Rosental — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Gmünd
Gmünd
FT
1 – 1
St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
10/10/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 11Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Gmünd46%
×Draw24%
St. Jakob Rosental30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gmünd
1.62
St. Jakob Rosental
1.27

Gmünd creates 28% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 76 away

creates per match

Gmünd
1.69
St. Jakob Rosental
1.51

allows per match

Gmünd
1.04
St. Jakob Rosental
1.55

finishing

Gmünd+0.00on par
St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gmünd ↓

St. Jakob Rosental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gmünd or draw
70%
Gmünd or St. Jakob Rosental
76%
Draw or St. Jakob Rosental
54%

Winning margin

Gmünd wins by 2+
23%
St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gmünd 1+ goals
80%
Gmünd 2+ goals
48%
Gmünd 3+ goals
22%
St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
72%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
36%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gmünd (draw refunded)
60%
St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gmünd at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

St. Jakob Rosental away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.55 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gmünd attack 1.69 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.62

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.51 + Gmünd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gmünd scores more
46%
level
24%
St. Jakob Rosental scores more
30%

Gmünd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Gmünd 1–1 St. Jakob Rosental

Gmünd and St. Jakob Rosental drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd in Gmünd.