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Gmünd vs Ferlach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Gmünd
Gmünd
CANC
13:00
Ferlach
Ferlach
11/7/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 15Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Gmünd52%
×Draw24%
Ferlach24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gmünd
1.73
Ferlach
1.10

Gmünd creates 57% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 92 away

creates per match

Gmünd
1.69
Ferlach
1.16

allows per match

Gmünd
1.04
Ferlach
1.76

finishing

Gmünd+0.00on par
Ferlach+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gmünd ↓

Ferlach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gmünd or draw
76%
Gmünd or Ferlach
76%
Draw or Ferlach
48%

Winning margin

Gmünd wins by 2+
28%
Ferlach wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gmünd 1+ goals
82%
Gmünd 2+ goals
52%
Gmünd 3+ goals
25%
Ferlach 1+ goals
67%
Ferlach 2+ goals
30%
Ferlach 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gmünd (draw refunded)
68%
Ferlach (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gmünd at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

Ferlach away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gmünd attack 1.69 + Ferlach defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ferlach attack 1.16 + Gmünd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gmünd scores more
52%
level
24%
Ferlach scores more
24%

Gmünd at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gmünd host Ferlach

November 7, 2020: Gmünd take on Ferlach in Landesliga - Karnten. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gmünd host Ferlach at Sportplatz ASKÖ Gmünd.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.