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Gloggnitz vs Leobendorf — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
Preview
17:00
Leobendorf
Leobendorf
5/14/2027Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 28
Big match
39%
Gloggnitz
model favours
39%25%36%

Leobendorf score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Gloggnitz39%
×Draw25%
Leobendorf36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloggnitz
1.44
Leobendorf
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 101 away

creates per match

Gloggnitz
1.48
Leobendorf
1.36

allows per match

Gloggnitz
1.42
Leobendorf
1.40

finishing

Gloggnitz+0.00on par
Leobendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloggnitz ↓

Leobendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gloggnitz or draw
64%
Gloggnitz or Leobendorf
75%
Draw or Leobendorf
61%

Winning margin

Gloggnitz wins by 2+
18%
Leobendorf wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gloggnitz 1+ goals
76%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
42%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
18%
Leobendorf 1+ goals
75%
Leobendorf 2+ goals
40%
Leobendorf 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
52%
Leobendorf (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloggnitz at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Leobendorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloggnitz attack 1.48 + Leobendorf defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Leobendorf attack 1.36 + Gloggnitz defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gloggnitz scores more
39%
level
25%
Leobendorf scores more
36%

Gloggnitz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gloggnitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Gloggnitz 2 vs Leobendorf 4
  • Leobendorf win just 28% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gloggnitz
WWWLL
Leobendorf
LWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gloggnitz face Leobendorf (Regionalliga - Ost)

Regionalliga - Ost returns with Gloggnitz hosting Leobendorf. Match starts May 14, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.