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Glentoran vs Carrick Rangers — League #408 2026

Glentoran
Glentoran
Preview
14:00
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
9/26/2026League #408League #408 · Round 9The BetMcLean Oval
Big match
58%
Glentoran
model favours
58%22%20%

Glentoran score first in only 22% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Glentoran58%
×Draw22%
Carrick Rangers20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glentoran
1.93
Carrick Rangers
1.05

Glentoran creates 84% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

creates per match

Glentoran
2.07
Carrick Rangers
1.17

allows per match

Glentoran
0.93
Carrick Rangers
1.79

finishing

Glentoran+0.00on par
Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran ↓

Carrick Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Glentoran or draw
80%
Glentoran or Carrick Rangers
78%
Draw or Carrick Rangers
42%

Winning margin

Glentoran wins by 2+
34%
Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Glentoran 1+ goals
85%
Glentoran 2+ goals
57%
Glentoran 3+ goals
30%
Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
65%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
28%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Glentoran (draw refunded)
74%
Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran attack 2.07 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.93

Carrick Rangers attack 1.17 + Glentoran defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Glentoran scores more
58%
level
22%
Carrick Rangers scores more
20%

Glentoran at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Glentoran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Carrick Rangers have won 3 in a row
  • Carrick Rangers score first in only 33% of matches
  • 67% of Carrick Rangers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Glentoran 1 vs Carrick Rangers 4
  • Glentoran win just 44% against the top half (vs 73% against the bottom)
  • 25% of Carrick Rangers’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Glentoran
LLDLW
Rangers
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Glentoran host Carrick Rangers

September 26, 2026: Glentoran take on Carrick Rangers in League #408. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Glentoran host Carrick Rangers at The BetMcLean Oval.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.