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Glentoran BU W vs Crusaders W — Premiership Women 2026

Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
Preview
18:45
Crusaders W
Crusaders W
8/7/2026Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Group Stage
Big match
77%
Glentoran BU W
model favours
77%13%10%

Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 100% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

3–1
likely score
77%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Glentoran BU W77%
×Draw13%
Crusaders W10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glentoran BU W
3.08
Crusaders W
1.06

Glentoran BU W creates 191% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Glentoran BU W
3.71
Crusaders W
1.77

allows per match

Glentoran BU W
0.36
Crusaders W
2.46

finishing

Glentoran BU W+0.00on par
Crusaders W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glentoran BU W ↓

Crusaders W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Glentoran BU W or draw
90%
Glentoran BU W or Crusaders W
87%
Draw or Crusaders W
23%

Winning margin

Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
57%
Crusaders W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
95%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
81%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
58%
Crusaders W 1+ goals
65%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
29%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
88%
Crusaders W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glentoran BU W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Crusaders W away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glentoran BU W attack 3.71 + Crusaders W defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 3.08

Crusaders W attack 1.77 + Glentoran BU W defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Glentoran BU W scores more
77%
level
13%
Crusaders W scores more
10%

Glentoran BU W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Glentoran BU W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 100% of Crusaders W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Crusaders W score first in only 20% of matches
  • 83% of Glentoran BU W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Glentoran BU W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Glentoran BU W win 82% of their home games
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Glentoran BU W 2 vs Crusaders W 1

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DWWLW
W
DLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Glentoran BU W face Crusaders W (Premiership Women)

Premiership Women returns with Glentoran BU W hosting Crusaders W. Match starts August 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.