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Girona vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Girona
Girona
Preview
15:00
Mallorca
Mallorca
10/4/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Municipal de Montilivi
Big match
43%
Girona
model favours
43%31%26%

Mallorca win just 11% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Girona43%
×Draw31%
Mallorca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Girona
1.14
Mallorca
0.81

Girona creates 41% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 45 away

creates per match

Girona
1.36
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Girona
0.68
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Girona+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Girona or draw
74%
Girona or Mallorca
69%
Draw or Mallorca
57%

Winning margin

Girona wins by 2+
18%
Mallorca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Girona 1+ goals
68%
Girona 2+ goals
32%
Girona 3+ goals
11%
Mallorca 1+ goals
56%
Mallorca 2+ goals
19%
Mallorca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Girona (draw refunded)
63%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Girona at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.68 · 72 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Girona attack 1.36 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Girona defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Girona scores more
43%
level
31%
Mallorca scores more
26%

Girona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Girona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Even after scoring first, Girona win only 44%
  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Girona
WDLDD
Mallorca
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Girona host Mallorca

October 4, 2026: Girona take on Mallorca in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Girona host Mallorca at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.