Girona 2–1 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Girona

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mallorca

V. Castellanos 84'

B. Espinosa 45+2'

V. Muriqi 80' (pen)

5/4/2023

La Liga · Round 33Estadi Municipal de Montilivi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Girona47%

×Draw25%

Mallorca28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GironaExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.17

Girona

1.57

Mallorca

1.17

Girona creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 40 away

1.39

creates per match

0.93

1.40

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Girona

1.39

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Girona

1.40

Mallorca

1.75

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Girona-0.05on par

Mallorca-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Girona or draw

72%

Girona or Mallorca

75%

Draw or Mallorca

53%

Winning margin

Girona wins by 2+

24%

Mallorca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Girona 1+ goals

79%

Girona 2+ goals

46%

Girona 3+ goals

21%

Mallorca 1+ goals

69%

Mallorca 2+ goals

33%

Mallorca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Girona (draw refunded)

62%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Girona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.75 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Girona attack 1.39 + Mallorca defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Girona defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Girona scores more

47%

level

25%

Mallorca scores more

28%

Girona at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Girona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

V. Castellanos

Girona · F

7.5

Match Events

14'

Bernardo Espinosa

45+2'

B. Espinosa

60'

Ricard Artero← Reinier

66'

Dani Rodríguez← D. Hadžikadunić

72'

L. Augustinsson← Jaume Costa

73'

Javi Hernández← Miguel Gutiérrez

76'

Javier Hernández

78'

Valentin Castellanos

80'

V. MuriqiPenalty

84'

V. Castellanos↳ Iván Martín

86'

C. Grenier← Manu Morlanes

86'

Ángel← A. Ndiaye

90+2'

Yan Couto

90+1'

C. Stuani← V. Castellanos

90+1'

Yan Couto← Iván Martín

90+1'

A. Callens← V. Tsygankov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GironaMallorca

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots8

1.69Expected Goals (xG)1.44

9Corners5

9Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots8

7On Target2

8Off Target4

2Blocked2

12Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

496Total Passes291

424Accurate Passes212

85%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls13

4Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3