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Gimnastic vs Teruel — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
Preview
16:00
Teruel
Teruel
11/29/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Nou Estadi de Tarragona
47%
Gimnastic
model favours
47%28%25%

Teruel have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnastic47%
×Draw28%
Teruel25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.31
Teruel
0.88

Gimnastic creates 49% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.35
Teruel
0.79

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.96
Teruel
1.26

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Teruel+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Teruel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
75%
Gimnastic or Teruel
72%
Draw or Teruel
53%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
22%
Teruel wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
73%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
38%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
14%
Teruel 1+ goals
59%
Teruel 2+ goals
22%
Teruel 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
65%
Teruel (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Teruel away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.35 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Teruel attack 0.79 + Gimnastic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gimnastic scores more
47%
level
28%
Teruel scores more
25%

Gimnastic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gimnastic
DWLWL
Teruel
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnastic vs Teruel — Match Preview

Gimnastic face Teruel on November 29, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Gimnastic host Teruel at Nou Estadi de Tarragona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.