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Gimnasia Concepción vs Union Sunchales — Torneo Federal A 2018

Gimnasia Concepción
Gimnasia Concepción
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
9/20/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 3Estadio Manuel y Ramón Núñez (Concepción del Uruguay, Provincia de Entre Rios)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Gimnasia Concepción51%
×Draw27%
Union Sunchales22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia Concepción
1.40
Union Sunchales
0.82

Gimnasia Concepción creates 71% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 85 away

creates per match

Gimnasia Concepción
1.14
Union Sunchales
0.78

allows per match

Gimnasia Concepción
0.87
Union Sunchales
1.65

finishing

Gimnasia Concepción+0.00on par
Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Concepción ↓

Union Sunchales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia Concepción or draw
78%
Gimnasia Concepción or Union Sunchales
73%
Draw or Union Sunchales
49%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Concepción wins by 2+
25%
Union Sunchales wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gimnasia Concepción 1+ goals
75%
Gimnasia Concepción 2+ goals
41%
Gimnasia Concepción 3+ goals
17%
Union Sunchales 1+ goals
56%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
20%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Concepción (draw refunded)
70%
Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Concepción at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.87 · 108 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Concepción attack 1.14 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Union Sunchales attack 0.78 + Gimnasia Concepción defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gimnasia Concepción scores more
51%
level
27%
Union Sunchales scores more
22%

Gimnasia Concepción at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gimnasia Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnasia Concepción 1 – 0 Union Sunchales

Gimnasia Concepción beat Union Sunchales 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel y Ramón Núñez (Concepción del Uruguay, Provincia de Entre Rios).