Gimnasia Concepción 0–1 Defensores de Belgrano VR

Gimnasia Concepción

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Defensores de Belgrano VR

B. Rodríguez 90+3'

4/28/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 6Estadio Manuel y Ramón Núñez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Gimnasia Concepción45%

×Draw29%

Defensores de Belgrano VR26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia ConcepciónExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Belgrano VR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.89

Gimnasia Concepción

1.27

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.89

Gimnasia Concepción creates 43% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 115 away

1.20

creates per match

0.90

0.87

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gimnasia Concepción

1.20

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.90

allows per match

Gimnasia Concepción

0.87

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnasia Concepción+0.00on par

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Concepción ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia Concepción or draw

74%

Gimnasia Concepción or Defensores de Belgrano VR

71%

Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR

55%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Concepción wins by 2+

21%

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gimnasia Concepción 1+ goals

72%

Gimnasia Concepción 2+ goals

36%

Gimnasia Concepción 3+ goals

14%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

59%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

22%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Concepción (draw refunded)

63%

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Concepción at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Concepción attack 1.20 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + Gimnasia Concepción defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gimnasia Concepción scores more

45%

level

29%

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

26%

Gimnasia Concepción at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gimnasia Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Germanier← L. Pitronaci

46'

B. Back← A. Passarino

46'

J. Bassani← S. Olano

46'

M. Guidolin← M. Machado

57'

M. Jaime← F. Ciampichetti

71'

A. Serafini← M. Medina

75'

J. Cartechini← L. Pérez

79'

I. Leguizamón← A. García

89'

B. Rodríguez← M. Guidolin

90+3'

B. Rodríguez

Gimnasia

Defensores

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Gorno

46'▲N. Germanier←▼L. Pitronaci

46'▲B. Back←▼A. Passarino

71'▲A. Serafini←▼M. Medina

79'▲I. Leguizamón←▼A. García

Gimnasia Concepción substitutes

GermanierBackSerafiniLeguizamón

Manager: J. Iturrería

46'▲J. Bassani←▼S. Olano

46'▲M. Guidolin←▼M. Machado

57'▲M. Jaime←▼F. Ciampichetti

75'▲J. Cartechini←▼L. Pérez

89'▲B. Rodríguez←▼M. Guidolin

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

BassaniGuidolinJaimeCartechiniRodríguez