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Gimhae City vs Seongnam FC — FA Cup 2019

Gimhae City
Gimhae City
Preview
10:00
Seongnam FC
Seongnam FC
7/29/2026FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Gimhae Sports Complex
53%
Seongnam FC
model favours
25%22%53%
1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gimhae City25%
×Draw22%
Seongnam FC53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimhae City
1.25
Seongnam FC
1.92

Seongnam FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gimhae City
1.50
Seongnam FC
1.33

allows per match

Gimhae City
2.50
Seongnam FC
1.00

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par
Seongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Seongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw
47%
Gimhae City or Seongnam FC
78%
Draw or Seongnam FC
75%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+
10%
Seongnam FC wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals
71%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
36%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
13%
Seongnam FC 1+ goals
85%
Seongnam FC 2+ goals
57%
Seongnam FC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)
32%
Seongnam FC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Seongnam FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.50 + Seongnam FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Seongnam FC attack 1.33 + Gimhae City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gimhae City scores more
25%
level
22%
Seongnam FC scores more
53%

Seongnam FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Seongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
City
WWLDL
FC
WDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gimhae City host Seongnam FC

July 29, 2026: Gimhae City take on Seongnam FC in FA Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gimhae City host Seongnam FC at Gimhae Sports Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.