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Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC — K League 1 2026

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3/9/2024K League 1K League 1 · Round 2Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC36%
×Draw26%
Ulsan Hyundai FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.27
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 154 away

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.32
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.46

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.19
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.21

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw
62%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC
74%
Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC
64%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
15%
Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
72%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
36%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
14%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
73%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
38%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
48%
Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 119 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.32 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.46 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
36%
level
26%
Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
38%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 in K League 1 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gimcheon Stadium in Gimcheon.